Why would it not be a surprise if the Seahawks tag Chris Carson this offseason

There are only two weeks left in the regular season of the NFL 2020, and while it’s not one hundred percent certain that the NFC West Division title will be decided this weekend when the Los Angeles Rams come to Lumen Field, it’s certain that there is significant question marks. by running back to the Seattle Seahawks to speak in the offseason.

The biggest question to answer is what to do with Chris Carson. Carson has been the undisputed starter at the position for the past three seasons, but with his rookie contract expiring, his price tag could rise markedly. His production has been fantastic, and the return that the Hawks have received on the special seventh round has been worth it. Specifically, since Carson joined the league in 2017, he is among the top ten in rushing yards, despite a 2017 campaign that was only four games long due to injury and despite a 2020 season that has seen him win just 568 yards due to the combination of injuries and the Let Russ Cook move.

That said, it’s no secret that the backflow market has been tough in recent seasons, and it’s possible that Carson may not find the type of free agency market he hopes to. Although Carson is unable to secure a monster contract of the like that Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey or Derrick Henry have in recent seasons, he is still likely to sign for more than many fans prefer to pay back. That said, the Seahawks are unlikely to break the bank to keep Carson, but do not be surprised if they borrow a move from the Arizona Cardinals offseason playbook.

Specifically, while the backlog franchise offering is likely to be in the $ 10 million range again. ($ 10,278 million in 2020 per OverTheCap.com), the transition offer for the position should fall in a range similar to what it was this season, $ 8,483 million. That’s exactly what the Cardinals did with Kenyan Drake in the previous offseason, allowing Drake to explore free agency, while giving Arizona the right to match any contract offer to Drake.

There’s no doubt that many fans are likely to be upset about the prospect of donating a one-year, fully guaranteed $ 8,483 million. Contract for a running back who has missed 19 games due to injury during his four years in the NFL, but that is not too far beyond what is expected of relegation. Seahawks fans were spoiled by the durability that Marshawn Lynch showed over the course of his career, and the 45 regular games that Carson will have played over the last three seasons when he hits free agency actually come just above expectations for the position. .

Running back is a brutal position, and in the NFL, a Week 1 starter on the position is expected to be available an average of 13.3 games over the course of the year or somewhere around 53 or 54 games over a four-year contract. For Carson, outside of the catastrophic injury he sustained in Week 4 of the 2017 season, he is likely to hit free agency after playing in 14, 15 and 12 games respectively in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. invincibility that some fans would like to see, but the reality is that it is in line with expectations for the position in today’s NFL. In fact, the 42 games that Carson has started since were drafted by Seattle are the eighth most games started of any race back in the NFL during this time frame, and that includes the 2017 season when he missed three quarters of the year due to a torn ligament and broken leg slightly against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4.

So while many Seahawks fans may not like the idea of ​​allocating somewhere near $ 8,483 million. On a return, Seattle would choose to use the transition offer at Carson with additional benefits. The biggest advantage for the Hawks would be that they would retain a pre-emptive right on any off that Carson receives from another team, while also allowing them to negotiate a longer contract from a starting point that is not quite as high. as if they were using the franchise brand. For Carson, the transition code would represent more than double what he has earned in terms of salary throughout his career, which is just under $ 3.8 million.

This amount is obviously far below the mega-contract amounts that running backs like Alvin Kamara, CMC, Elliott, David Johnson and others have signed for. However, it seems possible, possibly even probable, that Carson and the team could reach an agreement on a multi-year contract that would not represent as much money as the noted mega-contracts, but which would be far more than Carson has done so far. Exactly what the structure of such a contract would look like for Carson is difficult to speculate before the details of where the wage cap in 2021 is known, or at least more clear than they are now. Based on how much Pete Carroll and John Schneider seem to like Carson, it’s not hard to imagine he could be with the Seahawks for years to come, and the transition code is a tool the team could use to help. with the retention of his services in the future.